Will The Future Be Quite So Bubbly?

The past year has been dominated by concerns about the impact on obesity of Carbonated Soft Drinks. Whether it has resulted in renewed calls for social engineering through a soda tax, or availability bans (most recent of these has been Boston's Municipal Buildings), the press coverage has been negative.

One bright spot has been the impact of the Pepsi Refresh Everything project. The project is visibly and creatively changing the discussion about Pepsi in a positive direction.

 Refresh Everything started as a social media experiment and has become the marketer's dream combining relevance, interactivity and a positive message that reflects well on the brand.  In contrast the big movie and sports tie-ins found on other CSD brands this summer feel empty and self-centered.

Over the length of the recession the big CSD businesses have delivered big profits despite the carnage around them as consumers have returned to their value offerings. The big question that has highly paid executives up late is whether these trends will continue to drink them as the economy improves?

My observation is that the old way of marketing CSDs is becoming irrelevant as their level of commoditization increases.

Finding a way to drive relevance - like Refresh Everything - will be essential to giving the category a chance as consumers seek more healthy and functional alternatives.

The Change Is (almost) Complete

So, early on Saturday morning KO took over CCE in North America to align most of the big North American beverage businesses. As with both Pepsi and Dr Pepper Snapple the fanfare will be overshadowed inside Coke by the talks of duplication and synergy. In real terms for the employees this change will mean relocation and lost jobs for many employees. It will be a trying time, and efficiencies will be made. Wall Street will applaud.

But we are now left with three behemoth beverage businesses, with massive challenges regarding what portfolio they sell, and the degree of autonomy that can be left to the marketing manager, branch manager, route salesman and merchandiser. It remains to be seen whether such centralization can be successful, or whether it creates more opportunities for the small, nimble innovative companies.

Generation Gap or Food Politics? The Complexities of Caffeine

There are number of issues within the politics of food that are always interesting: Organic Vs GMO, soft drinks in schools - and my own personal favorite, coffee Vs energy drinks.

In Huffington Post today is such an article by Matthew Edlund MD. His observations are as follows:

Coffee is an important social lubricant: Energy Drinks are for loners
Coffee comes from trees: Energy Drinks are chemical creations
Coffee is for everyone: Energy Drinks are for teens

But "Used regularly all such drinks create caffeinism, the addiction to caffeine which can move from the buzzing speed of the addict to the withdrawal hell of headaches, nausea, vomiting and terrifying sleeplessness." All this is used to support his thesis that we get too little rest.

While I have some sympathy for his view that, we are all busy... but believing that consumers have no understanding on how to use caffeine is naive. Consumers are well aware of the caffeine in their beverages.

But also thinking that there is no sociability to caffeine drinks is false. Red Bull is drunk just about in every night club around the world. And there are plenty of 7 Eleven parking lots in Arizona where friends are drinking their Monster together.

Now, if we were talking about 5 Hour Energy... well, that is a different discussion.

Welcome to the L Shaped Recovery...

Nielsen analysis is saying that its unlikely that any significant recovery will occur until more people get back to work. Until then as opposed to a V shaped recovery (steep increases in confidence etc) we will get the L shaped recovery.

And its not even an issue of lack of credit anymore. Nielsen believes that credit is available - but its at such a price that no-one is interested - or has the confidence to borrow.

And simultaneously, earnings reports remain strong, and financial services are back in the black in a big way...

It all seems to be out of balance...

Gourmet Soda in New York

There are some really interesting things going in Boheminan NYC - a movement that the New York magazine is calling "Noveau Soda" - but its really a throwback to the days of drugs store prepared soda.

There places in Bed-Stuy, Carrol Gardens and the east village...

Must say that this does look interesting. Anyone up for a tour?

Simple

Interesting report from Mintel that products are getting "simpler" ie fewer ingredients. This is a logical extension of the natural trend (which has just entered its 20h year) and a desire from consumers to avoid highly processed foods.

Alcohol Info

Really interesting information from Gallup on the alcoholic preferences of Americans. Overall we now have the highest penetration of alcoholic beverages in last 15 years.

While Gallup does not go into the causes for this, you would imagine that a combination of the poor state of the economy, the increasing variety and kinds of alcohol and competitive pricing are encouraging consumption even as health and wellness trends may mitigate against them. 

 The additional detail provided is also interesting. While beer remains the dominant beverage, there is an increasing interest in wine across all demos. It is also interesting to see that spirits have an almost uniform interest across the demographics.